The Thai baht started the day at 32.53 per US dollar, a marginal dip from the previous close of 32.51. While the move is minimal, it reflects a lack of strong buying momentum for the baht. The currency has been hovering around the 32.50 support zone overnight, trading in a narrow band of 32.48\u201332.55 \u2014 a sign that neither buyers nor sellers are willing to make bold moves just yet. Krungthai Bank’s strategist Poon Panichpibool notes that the baht remains in a broader weakening trend<\/strong>, and a clear break above 32.00 on the weekly chart would be needed before any bullish reversal can be confirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n The single biggest driver right now is the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting<\/strong>, with results expected around 1:00 AM Bangkok time on Thursday. This is no ordinary meeting \u2014 it marks the first FOMC under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh<\/strong>, with former Chair Jerome Powell now sitting as a regular committee member, adding an extra layer of intrigue to how the Fed will communicate its stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Markets currently price in an 84% probability of at least one rate hike in 2026<\/strong>, which is keeping the dollar well-supported and preventing the baht from strengthening. Until the verdict is out, most traders are reluctant to adjust positions significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n Analysts at Krungthai see the baht moving within a 32.35\u201332.75 range<\/strong> today, but the actual direction will depend heavily on two intraday triggers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n Beyond today’s price action, the new Dot Plot<\/strong> is the real market mover to watch. This chart, updated quarterly, reveals where each Fed official expects interest rates to go \u2014 and it will essentially tell markets whether a 2026 rate hike is the base case or just a tail risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Krungthai’s base case is that the Fed holds rates at 3.50%\u20133.75%<\/strong> for all of 2026, then begins cutting in 2027 (Q2 and Q4). If the Dot Plot confirms this, the dollar could weaken, gold could rally, and the baht may find room to appreciate. However, if the Dot Plot leans toward a hike, expect the opposite \u2014 a stronger dollar, pressure on gold, and a weaker baht.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On top of the Fed, traders are also eyeing Trump’s scheduled speech at 8:30 PM Bangkok time<\/strong>, where he may comment on the U.S.\u2013Iran peace deal \u2014 a wildcard that could shift oil prices and risk sentiment in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bottom Line:<\/strong> The baht is in a holding pattern, and the next 24 hours could be a major inflection point. The FOMC outcome \u2014 especially the Dot Plot and how new Fed Chair Warsh communicates \u2014 will likely define the baht’s trajectory for the weeks ahead.Markets in “Wait-and-See” Mode Ahead of FOMC<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nTrading Range Forecast at 32.35\u201332.75\/USD<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Fed’s Dot Plot & U.S. Data Will Set the Medium-Term Direction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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